The largest prediction market puts the odds of a recession at about 29%.

Economists warn that the war has increased the risk of a recession. And the longer the crisis lasts, the greater the danger to an economy that already looked vulnerable before the chaos in the Middle East.

Most important, little else in the economy points to a shift towards the wealthy. The wages of low-earners are growing at a similar rate to those of richer ones—and grew much faster in the post-pandemic years. In surveys of consumer confidence, the gap between the mood of the poor and that of the rich is no wider than usual (see chart 4).

Top economist David Rosenberg sees a "very significant" US recession once fiscal stimulus dries up and AI-related capex starts to wane.

Rising geopolitical tensions across the Middle East have added to market uncertainty for a possible U.S. recession in 2026. Here's what analysts say.

Data from prediction market platform Kalshi shows the implied probability of the United States entering a recession this year has climbed to roughly 35.3%. That represents a notable increase from late February, when the odds stood near 21.6% just before hostilities between the United States and Iran kicked off.

Prediction market bettors are increasingly expecting the U.S. economy to enter a recession.

If you’re confused about whether the U.S. economy in a recession, near a recession or doing OK, you’re not alone. Turns out the answer may depend on where you live, according to Moody’s Analytics economist Mark Zandi. Twenty-one states and the ...

Two big states are also said to be “treading water.” The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as a "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months." In ...

Iran openly threatened a neighboring country's non-U.S. assets for the first time Saturday, warning people to immediately evacuate the busiest port in the Middle East and two others in the United Arab Emirates as the U.