The probability that the National Bureau of Economic Research will someday determine a national recession began in the U.S. between December 2025 and December 2026 has fallen below twenty percent.

Research of the probability and statistics group includes particle systems, theoretical statistics, non-conventional random walks, random matrix theory, and random polynomials. Research interests also ...

Pricing for short- and long-dated European and American options to buy Euros versus U.S. dollars at a strike price of 1.09 for quarterly maturities out to 20 years is shown below. Note that the data ...

A number of political forecasters on Wednesday reported it had become more likely that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden would defeat President Trump in the upcoming election following Tuesday ...